The Grand National 2019

Here we are at the largest horse race in the world, the Grand National!

First off, is to rule out those horses that don't really have a chance, those carrying too much weight, (over 11st 5lbs), those that are too old or too young, (under 7 and over 11), and more importantly, those who have no proven ability over 3 miles, this left me with these, (the horses in bold are the ones I deem to have the best chance):

  • 511-411 TIGER ROLL - Won the national last year and won his last 2 races, confirming his dominance by winning at Cheltenham last time out, although not raced over 4m since, carrying 6lb more now. Clearly the best horse in the race, but in my mind carrying too much weight to be able to make it 2 from 2.
  • F58-321 GO CONQUER - Never raced over 3m
  • 1P12-82 MALA BEACH - Only just gone over 3m, too far today although he does race on Soft
  • 123-113 LAKE VIEW LAD - Generally races less than 3m, although he has come home in the top 3 in every race in last 2 years, so he is a fine animal, races on Soft and Heavy, 3rd at Cheltenham so is a strong conender.
  • PP-07F1 DOUNIKOS - has not done well of late although does do the distance but lots of PU and Fell in his past, won last time out in Punchestown over 3m4f with 16 runners.
  • 2BU14-1 RATHVINDEN - generally races of 2m4f mark, but won last time out at Fairyhouse over 3m1f and at Chel over 4m on Soft and has Ruby Walsh on board so is another strong contender.
  • 1511/UU ONE FOR ARTHUR - goes the distance as won the Grand National in '17, but has only raced twice since and didn't finish either race.
  • 1P2-616 ROCK THE KASBAH - races over 3m on Good, won at Cheltenham on Good over 3m3f, but poor last time out.
  • 3P1P-63 REGAL ENCORE - goes over 3m but doesn't really get up there, won at Ascot in '18 but poor since.
  • U3-3721 JURY DUTY - coming into form, but over 2m4f, last race was 3m2f on Soft and he won beating MALA BEACH but only 5 runners in that race, so very different to today.
  • 2311-76 STEP BACK - won at Sandown over 3m5f against 20 runners on Good/Soft last year, poor in races since.
  • 01-435P ULTRAGOLD - hasn't done well in any race over 3m.
  • 148-138 UP FOR REVIEW - generally runs over 2m4f, raced over 3m twice this year and was soundly beaten.
  • 233-1P2 VINTAGE CLOUDS - is a marathon runner, only racing over 3m for last 2 years on Heavy and Soft, 2nd last time out at Cheltenham on Soft over 3m1f, another very strong contender.
  • 1-0953P GENERAL PRINCIPLE - goes over 3m, but doesn't do well, won over 3m5f at Fairhouse on Heavy against 30 runners last year and 3rd in Feb over 3m4f
  • 3P-3133 WALK IN THE MILL - races over 3m, come home in the top 3 in his last 4 races winning over 3m2f on Soft last year, a strong contender.
  • 339613 CAPTAIN REDBEARD - not raced over 3m since the National last year
  • 4311-62 JOE FARRELL - won at Aintree last year over 4m, raced twice this year over 3m2f, 6th and 2nd, in smaller field on Good/Soft

So for me, there are 3 contenders, TIGER ROLL, VINTAGE CLOUDS and WALK IN THE MILL. All very capable horses, in great form, can do the distance and not carrying too much weight, but I feel TIGER ROLL is carrying too much wait to win at this distance and on soft ground, but the one who can handle the ground, only races these longer distances and just keeps on going is:
VINTAGE CLOUDS.